FORT WAYNE, Ind.(WPTA21)- A Purdue Fort Wayne political science professor says polls can be reliable but they can't predict exactly how an election plays out.
"One in 20 of them is going to be statistically biased, which adds to another problem. And so there's a lot of uncertainty. We should look at them as being done well, (but) they're not definitive. Only the election is definitive," Professor Michael Wolf said.
Back in 2016, polls showed Hillary Clinton had a 70 percent chance of winning the election. The election played out differently.
Wolf said this year is much different than 2016.
"In these national polls, Joe Biden has held a larger lead than Hillary Clinton did, and it's been more steady. So that's probably why a lot of people are going with that," Wolf said. "But that doesn't mean that Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and some of these other states are definitely in the tank for Joe Biden."
Another point Wolf makes is Clinton had a steady lead within the margin of error, which he says shouldn't be over interpreted.
ABC 21 spoke to voters who were mixed on where they stood when it comes to polling.
"I have the utmost confidence in the system and I think that it will provide the best answers," Logan Nabozny said.
"I'm pretty concerned that the polling isn't accurate after what happened in 2016," Debra K. Nestleroad said.
Wolf said with everything going on this year, this election looks much different than others. He does trust that polls are good, but he says they can't predict the future.
"The closeness of these races makes this an imperfect science even if it tells us a lot," Wolf said.
"much" - Google News
October 28, 2020 at 10:12AM
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How much can you trust the 2020 election polls? - wpta21.com
"much" - Google News
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