Biden is also showing strength in crucial states, including the Great Lakes trio (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and the South/Sunbelt trio (Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.) Iowa, Ohio and Georgia may well also be in play.
None of these states are a “lock” for Biden. He could lose most or all, once again giving the country a Democrat who wins the popular vote while losing the Electoral College. But he has more paths to victory in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had four years ago, and Trump has even fewer paths than he did in 2016.
When I moved my rating of the presidential race on June 29 from Leaning Biden to Likely Biden, it was based on my assessment of the nominees; Trump’s personality and his limited efforts to broaden his appeal; key swing groups; and the electorate’s views of the sitting president.
As I wrote then, “With just four months to go, Trump is not likely to change his language or messaging. Americans are talking about health care, social justice and the economy, while the president complains about the media and Barack Obama, tweets about ‘law and order,’ vows to protect statues, and generally looks out of touch, inept and petty.”
But I also ended the column with a warning to readers: “But keep watching. Strange things happen these days.”
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September 29, 2020 at 05:02PM
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How Biden could still win (note sarcasm) - Roll Call
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