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Quick Fix
Infrastructure is coming but left wants much more — The $550 billion bipartisan Senate infrastructure package has a ton of cash for roads, bridges, President Biden’s beloved Amtrak, water security, broadband and more. But it’s not a lock in the House unless the White House delivers a gigantic reconciliation package somewhere at least close to $3.5 trillion. And that’s not a lock with centrist Democrats in the Senate.
Via our Tanya Snyder: “[M]any liberal activists found themselves caught between deflated and enraged. No groups may feel more jilted than transit advocates, who argue that Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden are passing up a rare opportunity to wean the U.S. from its century-old addiction to road-building.
“Instead, the bipartisan deal (H.R. 3684 (117)) offers $39 billion in new money for transit — a sum large enough to pay for tangible improvements in the nation’s chronically underfunded transit agencies, but one that’s dwarfed by the bill’s $110 billion for roads.”
The Wall Street view — Via Goldman Sachs: “The most important aspect of the [reconciliation] resolution … will be the amount of deficit expansion it allows. Since we believe Democrats are unlikely to agree to more than about $1.5 trillion in tax increases, a resolution that does not allow for any deficit expansion could lead to a smaller spending boost than we assume
“Overall, we continue to expect Congress to approve around $3 trillion over 10 years in additional spending, consisting of around $500bn from the bipartisan infrastructure bill and another $2.5 trillion from a budget reconciliation bill … There is still clearly a chance that centrist Democrats scale back the spending proposals”
Much more on all this below, of course. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wants to goose the chamber to clear the bill and other items before the summer recess. The debt limit is now back in effect at the current level of about $29 trillion. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (probably) can make moves to push off any possible default until October or November. But it’s out there.
Tokyo struggles under Covid surge — Not exactly a joyful moment for the Olympic hosts. Reuters: “Japan will shift policy to focus on hospitalising patients who are seriously ill with Covid-19 and those at risk of becoming so, officials said, to avoid strain on the medical system as cases surge in Olympics host city Tokyo and elsewhere.
“The country has seen a sharp increase in coronavirus cases, and is recording more than 10,000 daily new infections nationwide. Tokyo had a record high of 4,058 on Saturday, exceeding 4,000 for the first time.”
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben.
Driving the Day
Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. votes on the nomination of Damon Y. Smith to be general counsel at the Housing and Urban Development Department … They also have a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on “Oversight of Regulators: Does our Financial System Work for Everyone?” … President Biden at 1:00 p.m. “meets with Latino community leaders” … and at 3:45 p.m. delivers remarks on Covid vaccinations …
SCHUMER THREATENS RECESS — Our Burgess Everett: “Chuck Schumer doesn’t have to be the bad guy in the Senate’s infrastructure debate. The calendar is doing that job for him. With the upper chamber closing in on …
"Biden’s long-sought, $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure plan and readying a budget to set up a companion $3.5 trillion domestic spending plan, the majority leader is letting the simple threat of his members missing state fairs and overseas delegations drive the result. August in Washington isn’t any senator’s idea of a good time.
EVICTION BAN BLAME GAME CONTINUES TO BE A MESS — Our Katy O’Donnell and Lura Barrón-López: “An escalating blame game between … Biden and congressional Democrats over the expiration of the federal eviction ban has left local officials frustrated and scrambling to deal with a wave of renters now at risk of losing their homes.
“The Biden administration … rebuffed calls from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats to revive the eviction moratorium …
"Facing a deadlock, Pelosi and White House officials pleaded with governors and mayors to fill the void, in part by speeding up the delivery of more than $46.5 billion in federal rental assistance that has languished as state and local governments struggled to stand up programs to deliver the funds. Local officials complained that the finger-pointing was unhelpful.”
WH TOUTS INFRASTRUCTURE POLLS — Via White House memo: “After our polling memo last week, new polls reaffirm [the BID] remains popular nationally, as well as with key voting groups … New polls from Monmouth and Harvard CAPS-Harris show 70% and 72% of respondents supporting the infrastructure plan, respectively.”
Fly Around
COVID STALLS ASIA RECOVERY — WSJ’s Stella Yifan Xie and Jon Emont: “Asia is emerging as a weak link in an otherwise strong global economic recovery, as new pandemic restrictions restrain manufacturing in some countries and the exports that have powered the recovery in China show signs of slowing.
“With progress on vaccinations slower than in the West, Asia is hitting new pandemic highs driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus. The spread of the virus is threatening to hurt consumer confidence and erode the advantage of many Asian economies as manufacturing powerhouses.”
DEMS PRESS TREASURY ON CLIMATE — Our Victoria Guida: “Democrats including Sen. Elizabeth Warren … pressed the Treasury Department’s new climate czar on what he’s been up to, saying they’ve gotten little information on progress so far.
“In a letter to John Morton , who leads Treasury’s climate hub, Sens. Warren (D-Mass.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said they were eager to learn about what steps he was taking to implement … Biden’s climate agenda, including his May executive order. Morton, a former private equity investor, was tasked in April with coordinating Treasury's climate-focused work across the department.”
UPDATE via Victoria: “A Treasury spokesperson said the Financial Stability Oversight Council will continue to announce new initiatives on climate change in the coming months. The spokesperson also highlighted Treasury’s efforts internationally, including assistance to poorer countries and its work with multilateral development banks.”
CRYPTO CRACKDOWN FREAKS OUT INDUSTRY — Our Kellie Mejdrich and Brian Faler: “Buried in the still-unreleased bipartisan infrastructure package is a sweeping crackdown on cryptocurrency transactions that could generate significant tax revenue for the government and major anxiety in a financial technology industry that thrived during the coronavirus pandemic.
“Lawmakers want people facilitating trades in Bitcoin and other digital assets to be subject to reporting rules similar to those governing the sale of stocks and other securities: Brokers would be required to report things like how much people paid for cryptocurrencies. The proposal is alarming many in the industry, who are expressing fear of being ambushed with a host of new rules they could be stuck with for years.”
FORGET THE WALL STREET DRESS CODE! — NYT’s Lananh Nguyen and Melodie Jeng: “The suits are returning to the office. In chinos. And sneakers. And ballet flats. As Wall Street workers trickle back into their Manhattan offices this summer, they are noticeable for their casual attire.
“Men are reporting for duty in polo shirts. Women have stepped down from the high heels once considered de rigueur. Ties are nowhere to be found. Even the Lululemon logo has been spotted. The changes are superficial, but they hint at a bigger cultural shift in an industry where well-cut suits and wingtips once symbolized swagger”
SOME GOOD NEWS! — Our Maeve Sheehey: “The United States … hit the Biden administration's goal of administering at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose to 70 percent of American adults, reaching the milestone just shy of one month late.
“White House Covid-19 Data Director Cyrus Shahpar announced the milestone on Twitter, disclosing that the seven-day average of newly vaccinated Americans is at its highest point since July 4. In the Tweet, Shahpar said at least 70 percent of adults have gotten at least one shot. The Biden administration spent weeks touting its much-publicized goal of hitting the 70 percent vaccination mark by the July Fourth holiday”
TRANSITIONS — Erica Elliott Richardson is joining the Investment Company Institute as chief public comms officer. She most recently was a managing director at FTI Consulting.
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