In this tight election, this much is clear - CNN

Polling is harder today than it has ever been. Respondents are harder to come by, as more and more Americans abandon landlines and screen calls on their cell phones.

Democrats and many in the media assumed, wrongly, that a message of "Orange Man Bad" would result in a landslide. All they had to do was repeat anti-Trump rhetoric over and over -- and surely voters would agree. But issues matter. Talk from Democrats of packing the court, the Green New Deal, various proposals on universal healthcare, not to mention violence surrounding protests, likely scared people who voted for Trump in 2016, in part because they didn't like Hillary Clinton, to vote for him again in 2020.

Former Vice President Joe Biden understood this fear, as seen in his evasive non-answers on packing the court. He ultimately said he did not like the idea but would appoint a commission to study it -- Washington speak for "that's not going to happen."

Most people don't speak "Washington," though, and the Democrats' message was often defined by its more extreme members who get all the publicity they want through debate questions and coverage in conservative media. Soft Trump voters likely saw court packing as a real possibility.

Another possible reason for Trump's unexpected showing: Despite Democratic talk of leaving it all on the field, including from Joe Biden himself (and to be clear, an election is a grueling process -- both teams worked their hearts out and have much to be proud of), the Biden campaign's field canvassing operation was not as thorough as Trump's. The Biden campaign did not knock on doors until late in the campaign.

There was a good reason for not doing this -- namely, Covid-19 -- but the Trump campaign did go door-to-door throughout the campaign. This had to have an impact on voter turnout in key states like North Carolina or Texas, or in keeping races in Arizona, Michigan or Wisconsin that much closer. This caused consternation with liberal groups and down-ballot Democrats who wanted a more robust get-out-the-vote operation.

Similarly, while the Biden campaign skillfully deployed surrogates to raise money for the campaign or state parties, it's most prominent surrogate, Barack Obama, only appeared at a few events. He even skipped North Carolina, where in 2008 he was the first Democrat to carry the state since 1976. At events, Obama's speeches were more about torching Donald Trump, who has dismantled many of his policies, rather than boosting Biden, who could restore them. And what about Michelle Obama, perhaps the most popular Democrat in the country, and whose Democratic National Convention speech was easily the most talked about? Her time on the campaign trail was limited to tweets and videos. The kind of live events, even socially distanced, that drive important local and national media just didn't happen. This makes no sense.

Undecided voters? A recent ABC/Washington Post poll in North Carolina showed Biden leading the race by a mere one point, 49-48%, with only 3% of voters undecided. In mid-October, a reporter called me asking if I could connect them to any North Carolina undecided voters. I said I didn't know any but that I would ask some friends. I asked three friends in three different North Carolina cities if they knew any undecided voters. All three laughed at the suggestions. This election was all about base motivation -- undecided voters simply didn't exist.

As a North Carolinian who has worked three Senate races in my home state, I was often asked to predict the outcome. Despite studying North Carolina's political environment closely, I simply could not make a firm prediction, other than that it would be a razor thin margin.

Over the past few years there has been a lot of talk about whether we were in the midst of a political realignment, as seen through Trump's 2016 victory. Did those who presumed an electoral blowout think our political landscape suddenly changed, again, because of the "Orange Man Bad" argument? If so, that makes explaining Trump's inroads with Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County in Florida and Texas' Starr County very hard to do.

The reality is we were, and remain, a politically divided country. That doesn't look to change anytime soon. Which means the best prediction we can make today about 2024 -- are we doing that already? -- is that it won't be a landslide.

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November 06, 2020 at 12:57AM
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In this tight election, this much is clear - CNN
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