Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden and U.S. President Donald Trump.
AFP/Getty ImagesElection day is finally here to cap a 2020 contest in which over 95 million Americans have already voted early either in person or by mail.
As of election morning, Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in most national polls, and many crucial swing-state polls in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Biden is the favorite to win the popular vote based on a 6.5% point lead in the average of polls taken in the weeks leading up to election day compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The next president however is not the winner of the popular vote but the man who secures the Electoral College. To win the White House, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes. That’s a majority of the 538 that are up for grabs in the 50 states.
President Trump could have an Electoral College advantage like he did in 2016 when Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% but lost the presidency.
So just how much could Biden win the popular vote by but still lose the Electoral College?
According to FiveThirtyEight, if Biden were to win the popular vote by over 6 points, he would have a greater than 99% chance to win the Electoral College. A 5%-6% popular vote advantage for Biden would amount to a roughly 97% chance of winning the Electoral College.
Such a scenario still gives Trump a 3% chance of winning the presidency, which isn’t likely from a probability standpoint, but still entirely possible.
Other 2020 presidential election forecasters have stated similar odds. CNN political analyst Harry Enten claims, “Trump probably can’t win in the Electoral College if he loses by more than 4 to 5 points nationally.”
A Trump popular vote victory is still possible. Trump has a 3% chance of winning the popular vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.
David A. Walker, professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, whose presidential election model predicted the popular vote in 2016 within 0.5%, says the popular vote margin for Biden would have to reach landslide levels to completely eliminate Trump’s Electoral College advantage.
“If we were seeing 60%, and we are not, but if we were seeing 60% I could not imagine how Wisconsin and Pennsylvania wouldn’t be in the Biden column,” Walker told MarketWatch. Those states have been tagged as one of the key combinations that Trump must secure to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.
The last presidential election when a candidate got at least 60% of the vote was 1972 when Republican incumbent Richard Nixon got 60.7% of the vote to defeat Democratic challenger George McGovern.
A split result between the Electoral College and the popular vote in favor of Republicans would mean that Democrats would have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections yet secured control of the White House in only four of those elections.
It’s worth noting however that an advantage in the Electoral College is not something that only Republicans have benefited from. Barack Obama had an Electoral College advantage in his 2012 win over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
Follow all of MarketWatch’s 2020 Presidential Election coverage.
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How much could Joe Biden win the popular vote by but still lose the electoral college? - MarketWatch
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