There is a pattern of rain looking likely to move across Michigan. Here’s a look at when and how much rain you might expect.
First off, it’s been dry for a large chunk of Lower Michigan. The image just below shows the total rainfall in the past 14 days. A stretch along I-94 had a decent shot of rain in the last two weeks, but other large areas have had less than one-half inch of rain. Some parts of northeast Lower Michigan haven’t had any rain in the past two weeks.
Total rainfall in the past 14 days. (NOAA)
The image below shows you how much less rain than normal has fallen in the past two weeks. With the exception of the I-94 corridor and spotty areas of the Upper Peninsula, most of Michigan is lacking one to two inches of rain in the past two weeks.
Rainfall departure from normal for the past 14 days. (NOAA)
So when is it going to rain a more widespread rain? Friday into Saturday will have a weather feature big enough to set off sizable areas of rain and thunderstorms.
Here is the rain forecast animation.
Rain forecast starting Thursday night and ending Sunday morning
Thursday afternoon or evening scattered thunderstorms will develop on the west side of Lower Michigan. Friday that concentrated area of thunderstorms will meander across Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms will still be around the eastern half of Lower Michigan Saturday.
One thing I definitely like about everyone’s chance of rain is the slow movement of the stormy area. Any one spot will have 24 hours of possible storms. Of course it won’t rain that entire time at a spot, but you could get two or three rounds of thunderstorms in that period.
So let’s look at a few rainfall amount forecasts that give us a good hope of rain.
Total rainfall forecast from human forecasters at NOAA's rain forecasting branch called the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
First, just above I start with the human forecast. Yes we human meteorologists still put our input into which models look most accurate. The forecast above shows you the general rain amounts. There are two things to note here. First, this isn’t a good way to find out how much rain the heaviest thunderstorms will produce. Second, this forecast does target the Thumb, southeast Lower and northern Lower for inch-plus rains.
Total rainfall forecast through Sunday evening from the European Computer Model
The human forecast is issued after looking at several models. The model just above is the model generally accepted as the most accurate several days in the future. Its pitfall is it doesn’t show the heavy spots in stronger thunderstorms. Once again, this model targets the Thumb and southeast Lower for the best chance of inch-plus rain. If this model verifies, I would say everyone gets at least one-quarter inch. That’s not a lot in this dryness and heat, but it’s something.
Total rainfall forecast from NOAA's main model, the GFS
The U.S. model above also shows the Thumb and southeast Lower Michigan getting the most rain. But this model spreads the inch-plus rains across large areas of Lower Michigan. It’s probably overdone on that areal coverage of heavier rain.
Rainfall forecast from one of the higher resolution models called the North American Model (NAM)
Finally, just above I’m showing you a totally different kind of computer model. This model is better at forecasting the heaviest amounts in individual thunderstorms. It gives us the idea of what the heaviest totals may be. The small red splotches show the heaviest storms could produce over two inches of rain. Don’t look at the exact placement of individual storms, but look at the heaviest amounts.
So what does this mean for you? You likely have at least one-quarter inch coming. There is a good chance you will get one-half inch. There is about a 30 percent chance you will have over one inch, and a 20 percent chance you will have over two inches of rain.
Now it’s just a hoping game. You and I have to hope we are under the one to two inch producing thunderstorms. Good luck my friends!
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July 08, 2020 at 11:40PM
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Rain coming toward Michigan; When and how much - MLive.com
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